Subscription Churn Analytics

Where subscription revenue comes from, and where it leaks

Monthly recurring revenue for KKBox, a music-streaming service, rebuilt from 23M billing transactions. In the twelve months to Feb 2017, MRR moved 15.8% to NT$151.1M. New and returning members added NT$102.6M of monthly revenue while NT$82M leaked out, 96% of it through outright churn rather than downgrades.

MRR, Feb 2017
NT$151.1M
+15.8% vs Feb 2016
Paying subscribers
1,168,148
+19.2% year over year
Net revenue retention (T12M)
77.7%
Revenue kept from members paying a year ago
Monthly subscriber churn
4.35%
Average of the last 12 months

Monthly recurring revenue

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Paid plans normalised to a 30-day month, measured on the last day of each month.

Show data table
MonthMRRPaying subscribersARPU
Feb 2015NT$78,062,248547,349NT$143
Mar 2015NT$91,466,152639,174NT$143
Apr 2015NT$91,088,546663,992NT$137
May 2015NT$95,972,132677,301NT$142
Jun 2015NT$97,999,915684,590NT$143
Jul 2015NT$103,054,213725,963NT$142
Aug 2015NT$107,763,840763,419NT$141
Sep 2015NT$111,341,917797,230NT$140
Oct 2015NT$112,543,146810,674NT$139
Nov 2015NT$119,520,457871,445NT$137
Dec 2015NT$121,778,217893,560NT$136
Jan 2016NT$126,673,142941,808NT$134
Feb 2016NT$130,463,918980,100NT$133
Mar 2016NT$128,878,171973,863NT$132
Apr 2016NT$130,956,988986,704NT$133
May 2016NT$131,292,017989,938NT$133
Jun 2016NT$133,704,8411,011,429NT$132
Jul 2016NT$136,443,7011,040,749NT$131
Aug 2016NT$142,209,4081,085,717NT$131
Sep 2016NT$143,969,0271,101,059NT$131
Oct 2016NT$144,493,2661,107,405NT$130
Nov 2016NT$146,589,8871,127,096NT$130
Dec 2016NT$147,476,2631,131,387NT$130
Jan 2017NT$150,139,7361,156,242NT$130
Feb 2017NT$151,096,9981,168,148NT$129

The last twelve months as a bridge

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Starting MRR, plus every source of growth, minus every source of loss, equals ending MRR. A dbt test checks that this reconciles to the cent for every month.

Show data table
ComponentMRR
Starting MRRNT$130,463,918
+ NewNT$60,249,687
+ ReactivationNT$38,475,265
+ ExpansionNT$3,913,150
− ContractionNT$3,001,627
− ChurnedNT$79,003,396
Ending MRRNT$151,096,998

Revenue movements by month

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Gains stack above zero, losses below, from January 2016. (In 2015 the data is still filling in: every member already subscribed when it begins looks new.) Expansion and contraction are mostly members switching plan length or moving on or off a promotional price.

Show data table
MonthNewReactivationExpansionContractionChurned
Jan 2016NT$9,635,831NT$2,333,037NT$68,836NT$124,052NT$7,018,726
Feb 2016NT$7,544,348NT$4,129,630NT$80,898NT$292,377NT$7,671,723
Mar 2016NT$6,000,507NT$2,026,339NT$139,532NT$117,013NT$9,635,113
Apr 2016NT$4,007,525NT$3,525,116NT$690,330NT$196,530NT$5,947,624
May 2016NT$4,529,714NT$2,626,609NT$435,803NT$136,636NT$7,120,461
Jun 2016NT$5,026,766NT$2,778,712NT$258,466NT$218,906NT$5,432,214
Jul 2016NT$5,996,376NT$3,845,518NT$252,824NT$160,058NT$7,195,801
Aug 2016NT$5,705,137NT$5,454,958NT$256,170NT$176,820NT$5,473,738
Sep 2016NT$4,542,706NT$2,944,090NT$274,480NT$336,628NT$5,665,029
Oct 2016NT$4,431,903NT$2,206,729NT$295,458NT$327,808NT$6,082,042
Nov 2016NT$4,671,878NT$2,804,170NT$299,520NT$357,087NT$5,321,861
Dec 2016NT$5,693,170NT$2,943,851NT$324,879NT$260,945NT$7,814,579
Jan 2017NT$4,865,328NT$4,646,445NT$346,310NT$269,777NT$6,924,832
Feb 2017NT$4,778,677NT$2,672,729NT$339,378NT$443,418NT$6,390,104

Paying subscribers

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Shown on its own axis rather than overlaid on MRR: two scales on one chart invent correlations.